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On January 20, 2026, the Department adopted the REAL rule amendments, incorporating the August 2024 proposal and the July 2025 Notice of Substantial Change. The Coastal Zone Management rules, the  Freshwater Wetlands Protection Act rules, the Flood Hazard Area Control Act rules, and the Stormwater Management rules were significantly amended by this adoption and courtesy copies of these rules, incorporating the amendments, may be found on the WLM Rules page. 

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_btn title=”Copy of REAL Adoption (1/20/2026)” color=”info” size=”lg” align=”center” i_icon_fontawesome=”fa fa-solid fa-copy” css=”” button_block=”true” add_icon=”true” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Fdeptest.nj.gov%2Fnjreal%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fsites%2F222%2Freal_adoption_courtesy.pdf|target:_blank”][vc_btn title=”Flood Hazard Area Technical Manual (1/20/2026)” color=”info” size=”lg” align=”center” i_icon_fontawesome=”fa fa-regular fa-file-pdf” css=”” button_block=”true” add_icon=”true” link=”url:https%3A%2F%2Fdeptest.nj.gov%2Fwlm%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fsites%2F108%2Fdownloads%2Ffha%2Ffh_044.pdf|target:_blank”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”3″ css=””][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=””]

Intensifying Storm Surge and Sea-level Rise in New Jersey

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  • Rutgers University’s Science and Technical Advisory Panel (STAP) Report, released in November of 2019, indicates that:
    • Over the last forty years, from 1979-2019, sea-level rose at an average rate of 0.2 in/yr along the New Jersey coast, compared to an average rate of 0.1 in/yr in global mean sea-level.
    • New Jersey coastal areas are likely (at least a 66% chance) to experience average sea-level rise rates of 0.2 to 0.5 in/yr over 2010–2050.
    • There is a 50% probability that sea level rise will exceed 3.1 feet and a 17% probability that sea level rise will exceed 4.4 feet in New Jersey by the year 2100.
  • Existing flood standards are based on outdated historical trends that do not account for sea-level rise and attendant storm surge:
    • Roads and buildings built today are likely to be unserviceable in 2100.
    • Current reliance on incomplete and inaccurate data leads to inadequate risk assessment and substandard design criteria for buildings and infrastructure.
    • Higher temperatures increase the energy in storms and allow the atmosphere to hold more water, which increases the potential for more intense precipitation and flooding.

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Sea-level rise projections:

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=””]Assessments which evaluate global emissions policies, as well as observed actions and conditions, show a likely global temperature increase of 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100 (Climate Action Tracker, 2024; Larsen et al., 2024).  When considering a warming trend consistent with the 2.7 degrees Celsius pathway, that is, the intermediate scenario described in the IPCC’s AR6, with inclusion of rapid ice sheet loss processes and adjusted for conditions specific to New Jersey, there is up to a 17 percent chance that Sea-level rise will exceed 4.4 feet by 2100 (Rutgers University, 2023).  The table containing these projects follows:[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”” el_class=”bg-white rounded p-4″]

New Jersey Sea Level Rise Estimates (ft) in 2100 *
Climate Scenario STAP Low /
IPCC LOW (SSP1-2.6)		 IPCC Intermediate
(SSP2-4.5)		 STAP Moderate/
IPCC High (SSP3-7.0)		 STAP High/
IPCC Very High (SSP5-8.5)
Report STAP IPCC AR6 STAP IPCC AR6 STAP IPCC AR6 STAP IPCC AR6
Degree of Warming (C)** 2.0 1.8 — 2.7 3.5 3.6 5.0 4.4
Confidence Levels of Processes Included Low, Medium, and High Low, Medium, and High Medium and High Low, Medium, and High ***Low, Medium, and High Medium and High Low, Medium, and High ***Low, Medium, and High Medium and High Low, Medium, and High Low, Medium, and High Medium and High
Chance SLR Exceeds
> 83% chance 1.7 1.9 1.9 — 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.3 3.0 3.0
~ 50% chance 2.8 2.5 2.5 — 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.9 4.0 3.7
< 17% chance 3.9 3.4 3.2 — 4.4 3.8 5.1 5.1 4.2 6.3 5.9 4.7

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* ‘Low confidence’ does not indicate lower quality than a ‘high confidence’ estimate of sea level rise: rather, confidence is used to qualify the degree of agreement and level of evidence around the processes that are used as inputs into the sea level rise estimates. 
** Reported global warming levels are for the end of the 21st century, relative to a late nineteenth century baseline. For the IPCC scenarios, reported warming levels are median projections, while the IPCC sea level projections incorporate the range of possible warming levels consistent with the specified emissions scenario. 
*** IPCC low confidence projections for the intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP3-7.0) emissions scenarios are interpolated and are not direct outputs of the IPCC.

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Resources

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