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Climate Change in New Jersey – Updated 1/2026
Environmental Trends Report
NJDEP, Division of Science and Research

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Climate Change in New Jersey

Background

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=””]Climate change refers to long-term shifts in global average temperature and weather patterns.1,2 Global surface temperatures in 2011-2020 warmed 2°F (1.1°C) above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900), with nearly all of the increase as a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere.3 In the near term (2021-2040), global temperatures are likely to exceed the 2015 Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to 2.7°F (1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels even under the very low GHG emission scenario and are likely or very likely to exceed this set threshold under higher emission scenarios.3 Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific project that monitors global government-driven climate strategies, indicates that under current policies and actions, the global average temperature by the end of the 21st century will be approximately 4.8°F (2.6°C).4

The increase in GHG concentrations is contributing to innumerable changes to the global climate system, including direct effects (e.g., temperature, precipitation patterns, sea-level rise), impacts (e.g., economic, ecological, societal), and complex interactions that may combine for more severe outcomes (e.g., an overall increase in the frequency of concurrent heatwaves and droughts). This current warming trend is of particular significance because it is unequivocally a result of human activities in the industrial era.1,5 Technological advancements and new data have allowed attribution science to show how certain extreme events, such as heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones, would be less likely or not possible if not for human influence.3 Examples of attribution science include the Congressional Research Service Report Is That Climate Change? The Science of Extreme Event Attribution,6 various attribution studies on events around the world,7 and the analysis of extreme weather events in near-real time.8,9 Global warming is expected to continue to increase due to committed warming from GHGs already emitted to the atmosphere and anticipated increases in cumulative emissions in nearly all modeled scenarios.3,5,10

Despite the implementation of measures to curb future emissions, regional impacts are likely due to the momentum generated by past/current activities.5 Regional assessments predict that the Northeastern United States, including New Jersey, will be especially vulnerable to potentially devastating ecological, economic, and public health impacts of climate change.11,12,13 The Fifth U.S. National Climate Assessment reports the annual average temperature from 2002-2021 in most of the Northeast region was more than 2°F higher than the 1901-1960 average, while precipitation is 5 to 15% higher.5 At a global warming level of 3.6°F (2°C), much of the southern portion of the region (including Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and southwestern West Virginia) is projected to experience more days per year with temperatures above 95°F, more nights above 70°F, and fewer days below 32°F compared to the 1991-2020 period. Extreme precipitation has increased more in the Northeast than in any other region in the nation. From 1958 to 2022, the region experienced about a 60% increase in the amount of precipitation falling in extreme precipitation events, which are defined as the top 1% of daily precipitation accumulations.5 Sea levels in New Jersey are rising more than twice as fast as the global average and are projected to continue rising at increasing rates.14,15 The state is especially vulnerable to significant impacts of sea-level rise due to geologic subsidence, the topography of its coastline, current coastal erosion, and a high density of coastal development.16

In a small state like New Jersey with several population centers, regional and local temperature and climate variables are influenced by other important factors, including urbanization. The large expanses of asphalt and concrete associated with urban and suburban sprawl, and the resultant loss of forests, fields, and other open space, are exacerbating a warming effect. This effect is especially pronounced in densely populated urban areas, which can exhibit what is called the heat island effect.17

As illustrated in the figures and tables below, long-term data for New Jersey document an increase in average temperature, precipitation, and sea level that are consistent with observed and predicted global trends.[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1667232268417{border-bottom-width: 4px !important;border-bottom-color: #5b9bd5 !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;}”]

Status and Trends

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=””]Temperature

The Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist at Rutgers University has gathered and quality-checked statewide temperature and precipitation records back to 1895.18 Over the last 130 years (from 1895 to 2024), these data show the statewide average annual temperature has had a statistically significant increase of 4.1°F (2.3°C) (Kendall Tau = 0.537; p<0.0001).18 The state mean annual temperature from 1895 to 2024 is shown in Figure 1.

Along with the increase in average temperature, the total number of days over 90°F in New Jersey annually has increased by about 36% since 1949.19 Heat waves are a stretch of at least three days with temperatures of 90°F or greater.20 A recent study of heat waves over a 30-year period (1994-2023) found that there is a trend toward more heat waves in recent years and less daily cooling associated with each one.21

 

Figure 1. New Jersey 12-Month Average Air Temperature from 1895 to 2024. Points represent the average annual temperature, and the dashed line represents a five-year average of those points. Data are from the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist.18

One important aspect of temperature is the effect it has on heating and cooling energy needs. This effect is often estimated by translating temperature readings into heating degree days or cooling degree days. Heating degree days measure the amount (in degrees) that the average daily temperature is below 65°F (excluding days above 65°F), thereby requiring heating. Monthly and yearly totals of heating degree days are calculated by adding up the heating degree days for that given month or year. Similarly, cooling degree days are the number of degrees that each day’s average temperature is above 65°F (excluding days below 65°F), thereby requiring cooling. Cooling degree days are also calculated cumulatively for monthly and yearly totals. Higher totals of heating and cooling degree days generally translate to higher energy expenditures for heating and cooling, respectively.

Yearly total heating and cooling degree days were calculated based on cumulative monthly totals for the years between 1895 and 2024, as provided by the State Climatologist (see Figures 2 and 3, respectively).18 The long-term trend indicates that temperatures have shifted such that relatively fewer days are spent on heating (i.e., warmer temperatures) and relatively more days are spent on cooling (i.e., warmer temperatures). Statistical analysis using Kendall Tau Rank Correlation shows both data sets have significant trends, negative for the heating degree days (Kendall tau = -0.461, p < 0.0001), and positive in the case of the cooling degree days (Kendall tau = 0.451, p < 0.0001), indicating that both the winters and summers have become warmer in New Jersey during this period.

Figure 2. Yearly total heating degree days, NJ; computed from statewide daily temperatures below 65°F (1895-2024).18

 

Figure 3. Yearly total cooling degree days, NJ; computed from statewide daily temperatures above 65°F (1895-2024).18

 

Precipitation

Total annual precipitation data are also available from the State Climatologist.18 From 1895 to 2024, New Jersey received an average of 45.6 inches of precipitation annually. There is a north to south gradient for precipitation, where the north to central portion of the state averages 47.2 inches of precipitation annually, while the coastal and southern regions average 44.3 and 44.6 inches, respectively (see Figure 4).18 The 30 year period from 1991-2020 has a statewide average annual precipitation of 47.6 inches, about 3 inches higher than the 1901-1930 period.

Figure 4. Average annual precipitation and standard error bars (1895-2024) are shown alongside a map of New Jersey’s Climate Divisions.18

New Jersey is getting wetter over time.22 Annual precipitation over the last 10 years (2015-2024) was 6.6% higher on average than the long-term average (1895-2024).18,22 Analysis shows a statistically weak increase in total annual precipitation since 1895 (Kendall Tau = 0.099; p=0.094). However, five-year and ten-year averages of annual precipitation evaluated over the same 130-year period show strong statistical increases (Kendall Tau = 0.252; p<0.0001, and Kendall Tau = 0.345, p<0.0001, respectively). These multi-year averages are intended to account for the interannual variability found in precipitation patterns (see Figures 5 and 6).

Figure 5. Statewide Annual Precipitation in inches (1895 – 2024). Points represent the statewide annual precipitation, and the dashed line represents a five-year average of the data based on year of interest and the previous four years. Data acquired from the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist 2024.18

Figure 6. Annual Precipitation in inches across New Jersey’s Climate Division (1895 – 2024). The red, yellow, and blue lines represent the five-year average of the data for the North, South, and Coast divisions, respectively, based on the year of interest and the previous four years. Data acquired from the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist 2025.18

Although increased precipitation is projected for New Jersey’s future climate, there is considerable uncertainty with respect to the magnitude of change from the baseline as well as the seasonality of the change, both of which remain active areas of research. A recent study showed that extreme precipitation amounts in New Jersey have already increased at most stations by 2.5% or more, with 100-year storms increasing in precipitation depths by more than 10% in some places.23 Precipitation frequency estimates were updated by the author due to the NOAA Atlas 14 estimates no longer reflecting the current climate conditions in New Jersey.23

Changing precipitation patterns, including extended periods of low rainfall, are likely to make droughts or drought-like conditions occur more frequently.24 New Jersey has a comprehensive drought monitoring system, which allows assessment of drought conditions on a regular basis.25 Since 2000 in New Jersey, a notable drought episode occurred in 2001-2002, with drought watches declared for short periods of time in 2005, 2006, 2010, 2015, 2022, and 2024. 24,25 New Jersey also experienced drought conditions from 2016 through 2017 for the northeastern, northwestern, and central drinking water supply regions in NJ, with a short period of drought in 2022.26

Sea Level

Sea-level rise is a major concern for New Jersey. Long-term tide gauge data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show that the sea level at the New Jersey coast sites of Atlantic City, Cape May, and Sandy Hook has risen at more than double the global rate.15,27 From 1912 to 2021, sea-level rose 1.7 ± 0.1 inches/decade (4.2 ± 0.2 mm/yr) at the Atlantic City tide gauge.15 Research shows that the pre-anthropogenic sea-level rise in New Jersey was approximately 2 mm/yr (0.079 in/yr), due to geological factors.28,29 Research suggests that the anthropogenic contribution to the recent higher rate of rise is approximately 2 mm/yr (0.079 in/yr), or about one-half of the total observed rate of rise in the state.30 For a detailed assessment of the sea level change budget, see the Science and Technical Advisory Panel (STAP) 2025 report on New Jersey’s Rising Seas and Changing Coastal Storms.15

Table 1.New Jersey Sea-level Trends. Long-term sea-level rise trends for Sandy Hook, Atlantic City, and Cape May since records began in the 20th century. Rates are provided in multiple units plus or minus the 95% confidence interval.27

Extreme Events

A “Climate Extreme” is the occurrence of a weather or climate variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends of the range of observed values of that variable.31 Over the last few decades, the state has experienced a string of extreme events, including Superstorm Sandy, which struck New Jersey in October 2012. In fact, from 1980 to September 2024, there were 72 confirmed weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each in New Jersey.32

Recent New Jersey weather and climate extremes include:

  • The ten warmest calendar years on record have occurred since 1998, while the ten coldest years occurred before 1940;18
  • The top ten warmest summers have occurred since 1999, based on the period of 1895-present, with 2023 being the second hottest summer on record;18
  • The warmest year on record occurred in 2012 when the average annual temperature was 4°F (2.2°C) above the long-term average;18
  • Four of the top ten snowiest winters since 1895 occurred after 1996.33
  • Major floods (those that have caused extensive inundation of structures and roads, significant evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations)34 have occurred frequently in New Jersey in recent years, including 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2016, and 2021.35
  • In the Northeast, 10-year 24-hour extreme precipitation events increased by over 130 percent between 1950 and 2017.36

While increasing variability and extremes are expected in the future, the nature and magnitudes of the extremes still represent an area of great uncertainty.[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1667238567308{border-bottom-width: 4px !important;border-bottom-color: #5b9bd5 !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;}”]

Outlook and Implications

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1768511504032{border-bottom-width: 4px !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-color: #5b9bd5 !important;}”]Temperature

The observed global, regional, and statewide warming trends are expected to continue. But how fast the planet warms, and how much it warms overall, will depend on how much pollution we release into the air. Recent estimates indicate that current international policies and actions have us on track for the global average temperature to reach 4.7°F (2.6°C) above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900) by 2100,4 which tracks closely with IPCC’s intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5).3 Under an intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), temperatures in New Jersey are expected to increase by 3 to 8°F (1.7 to 4.4°C) by mid-century (2041-2070) and 4 to 10°F (2.2 to 5.6°C) by late century (2071-2100) above the average annual temperature from 1901 to 1960.25

Rising temperatures will very likely continue to result in greater human mortality and morbidity from excessive heat,13,21 decreases in air quality (i.e., increased ground-level ozone),37 and promoting the spread of diseases carried by insects and arachnids further north as conditions become more favorable.38 Heat stress is of special concern for vulnerable urban populations. For the New York City metro area, climate models predict up to a threefold increase in days with temperatures above 90°F, from a 1970-2000 baseline of 18 days per year on average to 57 days per year by 2050.39 Under the 90th percentile high estimate, the number of heat waves could increase from an average of 2 per year (1970-2000) to up to 7 per year by 2050. Visit Heat Hub NJ to learn more about extreme heat and its effects.

Precipitation

Precipitation (as rain, rather than snow) and runoff are likely to increase in the Northeast in both the winter and spring.5,14 In such areas where total precipitation is expected to increase the most, there would also be the largest increase in heavy precipitation events. It is anticipated that the frequency and/or intensity of precipitation events will increase or show more variable distribution (temporally and spatially) due to climate change (e.g., increasing precipitation in certain seasons, droughts in other seasons, more extreme occurrences of both, etc.).

Projections of extreme rainfall events in New Jersey indicate increases in intensity, with one study showing that under a moderate emission scenario, precipitation amounts from the 100-year, 24-hour storm will increase, on average, by 20-25% in northern counties.40 The models indicate a 17% chance that precipitation in those storms may increase in amounts of up to 50% in some parts of New Jersey. More frequent storms, such as the 2-year and 10-year, 24-hour storms are expected to see increases in precipitation intensity, on average, of 5% to 15% across the state by the end of the century. To learn more, visit the New Jersey Extreme Precipitation Projection Tool to explore the results of this New Jersey study.

Sea-level Rise

The New Jersey Climate Change Resource Center’s STAP 2025 projections of long-term sea-level rise for New Jersey are shown in Table 2.15 These include estimates based on low, intermediate, and high global emissions for 2070, 2100, and 2150. For the central estimates in the table, there is a 50% probability that New Jersey sea-level rise will meet or exceed the given values. For the estimates in the likely range, there is a 66% probability that sea-level rise will be between the values given in each range. The Atlantic City tide gauge station was selected to represent the New Jersey coast because it maintains the longest tide gauge data record in the state. The STAP 2025 projections show that by 2100, under an intermediate emission scenario, the likely range of sea-level rise for Atlantic City is 2.2 to 3.8 feet (0.67 to 1.16 meters) above a 2005 baseline, with an extended likely range of up to 4.5 feet (1.37 meters). Due to the array of exposures and vulnerabilities within the state, the STAP report identifies the importance for practitioners to consider a range of estimates for protective risk management, including those in the extended likely range that incorporate unknown-likelihood, high-impact ice sheet instability processes.

Table 2. New Jersey sea-level rise estimates, above the 1995-2014 baseline (ft).15 Sea-level rise (SLR) estimates are reported here for Atlantic City, NJ. All values are 19-year means of sea-level measured with respect to a 1995-2014 mean (i.e., 2005 baseline). Low (blue), intermediate (orange), and high (red) emission scenarios above correspond to SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0, respectively. Projections through 2050 do not project to low, intermediate, or high projections because differences in sea-level rise projections between emission scenarios are minor through the year 2050, where the range of projected sea-level rise is less than 0.2 ft across emission scenarios. Rows correspond to different projection probabilities. For example, the ‘Likely Range’ rows correspond to at least a 2-in-3 (66-100% chance) chance of sea-level rise from the relevant projections considered, consistent with the terms used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 41,42 ‘Extended Likely Range’ projections include potential effects from unknown-likelihood, high-impact ice sheet instability processes. Low end and likely range rows do not incorporate these processes. However, most experts agree the actual 83rd percentile falls between the 83rd percentile of projections that exclude potential rapid ice-sheet loss processes and those that fully incorporate potential rapid ice-sheet loss processes. As such, the “Extended Likely Range” projections can be considered within the likely range and within the high-end projections.

† Estimated degrees of warming relative to late nineteenth century (1850-1900) levels provided for each year and emission scenario using the format “median (5th – 95th percentile range).” Estimated degrees of warming for 2040 and 2050 are reported using the format “median of the intermediate emission scenario (5th percentile from SSP1-2.6 – 95th percentile from SSP3-7.0)”.

Figure 7. Diagram of Sea-Level Rise Projections Curve Under Intermediate Emission Scenario SSP2-4.5.15 There is a 50% chance that future sea-level rise will exceed the level displayed by the red line, and a 66% chance (17th to 83rd percentile, the likely range) that sea-level rise levels will be between the solid black lines (i.e., tan area). For example, there is a 66% chance that in 2070, under an intermediate emission scenario, sea-level rise in New Jersey will be between 1.5 feet (0.46 meters) and 2.5 feet (0.76 meters).

According to the National Climate Assessment (2023) report, under the intermediate sea level scenario, minor, moderate, and major coastal flood frequencies will all increase by 5–10 times along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts relative to 2020 in the absence of adaptation.43 Several Northeastern U.S. states will have sizable portions of their projected populations at risk of adverse effects from sea-level rise.44 One model estimates that by 2100, approximately 309,000 NJ residents could be impacted as a result of a 3 foot (0.9 meter) rise in sea level, and over 827,000 residents impacted by a rise of 5.9 feet (1.8 meters) based on future population growth estimates.44

New Jersey is already experiencing more frequent occurrences of high tide flooding in developed areas, even in the absence of precipitation events.15 In fact, the frequency of flooding by tides has already increased from an average of less than one event per year in the 1950s to an average of twelve per year from 2007 to 2024. By the year 2100, under an intermediate emission scenario, it is extremely likely (>95% chance) that Atlantic City will experience high tide flooding at least 131 days a year, and likely (50% chance, shown in Figure 8) that Atlantic City will experience high tide flooding 326 days per year. These effects will be magnified during storm events, increasing the severity of storm-related flooding and associated erosion in coastal and bay areas. The frequency of floods in Atlantic City that were previously expected to occur once per century are predicted to occur every year or two by the end of the century under a high emission scenario.45,46

Rutgers University has developed an interactive online mapping tool called NJ Flood Mapper (http://www.njfloodmapper.org) to assist local communities in making decisions concerning flooding hazards and sea-level rise.47

Figure 8. Minor high tide flooding projections in Atlantic City, NJ.15 For each decade through 2150, the medium likelihood (50% chance) of projected annual average high tide flooding days per year is shown for low (blue), intermediate (yellow), and high (pink) emission scenarios. The red line indicates 365 high tide flood days per year.

Broader Impacts

Warmer temperatures and associated changes in the water cycle will likely impact New Jersey’s natural ecosystems in numerous ways, including loss of critical habitat, disruption of ecosystem services, changes in species responses to environmental cues, and altered species distributions. For example, native brook trout require cold water to survive and will likely be replaced by fish more tolerant of warmer waters.48 The impacts are expected to add new stresses to already threatened and endangered species, water supply management, agricultural practices, and fisheries. Additionally, studies indicate increasing risks that New Jersey could be subjected to more intense rain events40 along with more frequent periods of extended dryness,49 and increases in fires,50 pests, disease, and invasive weed species.12,13 Increases in streamflow, erosion, and nitrogen inputs to surface waters due to more intense rain events are likely already having substantial impacts, including losses of Spartina patens in the marshes of southern New Jersey, leading to drastic habitat change.51 Conversely, warmer temperatures and periods of drier conditions and drought are expected to lead to eutrophication and an increased potential for rapid and excessive growth of harmful algal blooms.52,53

As the climate warms, ice sheets will continue to melt. Some measures have shown a dramatic increase in the melting rate of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.15 If these melting rates continue or accelerate further, sea-level rise rates around the world will increase, causing greater severity and frequency of coastal flooding in New Jersey. In recent years, confidence in this flooding scenario has increased. Under all five illustrative scenarios considered in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the Arctic will be nearly free of sea ice in summer at least once before 2050 due to increased melting rates as a result of global warming.3

Sea-level rise flooding impacts include saltwater intrusion into water resources. A recent literature review indicated climate change is likely to cause temporary and long-term changes in groundwater quality, due to alterations in hydrogeological processes including precipitation, groundwater recharge/discharge, storage, and saltwater intrusion.54 In order to evaluate the potential impacts of flooding and saltwater intrusion as a result of sea-level rise, the New Jersey Geological and Water Survey and the United States Geological Survey have initiated a groundwater monitoring network for the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer along the Delaware Bay. Recent simulations indicate that with 3.3 feet (1.0 meter) of sea-level rise, the salt front on the Delaware River could migrate 5.5 to 8.6 miles upriver.55

New Jersey’s coastal waters are also being impacted by ocean acidification. The associated risks to the state’s waters and recommendations for mitigation have been explored by the DEP Science Advisory Board’s Ocean Acidification Working Group,56 and the DEP has outlined next steps for addressing this issue in its Ocean Acidification Action Plan. Since the ocean acts as a buffer for some climate change impacts, having already absorbed a quarter of our carbon dioxide emissions, higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere ultimately result in increased acidity of ocean waters.12,57 In some areas of the global ocean, there has already been a 0.1 unit change in pH, which corresponds to a 30% increase in acidity over levels in the mid-eighteenth century.58 If carbon dioxide emissions continue at current rates, ocean pH levels are projected to drop another 0.3 to 0.4 pH units by the end of the century to 7.8 or 7.7, resulting in the most acidic ocean conditions that have occurred in the last 20 million years.59 More acidic conditions have been observed to affect a range of different species (e.g., bivalves, lobsters, crabs, sea urchins, plankton, and coral reefs) in their critical biological processes, including hatching, larval development, shell development, organ development, immune response, acid-base regulation, metabolic processes, and olfaction (smell).60

This trends report summarizes how greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are primarily driving the changes in temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification that are altering the way life on Earth interacts and exists. The impacts from climate change are already occurring and are likely to worsen over time without intervention. The severity of long-term impacts that New Jersey, and the world, will experience varies depending on global emissions and the ability of societies around the world to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. New Jersey is committed to having a comprehensive and forward-thinking response to address the impacts of climate change. As such, the state is taking initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and is a national leader in renewable energy. For additional information on greenhouse gases and initiatives that are being enacted at the state and federal levels to help mitigate their impacts and encourage renewable energies, see the reports, “Greenhouse Gas Emissions” and “Energy Use and Renewable Energy Sources” in this NJDEP Environmental Trends series. For more detail on impacts associated with climate change in NJ, please see the 2025 NJ Scientific Report on Climate Change.[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1667238851975{border-bottom-width: 4px !important;border-bottom-color: #5b9bd5 !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;}”]

More Information

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1768509604310{border-bottom-width: 4px !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-color: #5b9bd5 !important;}”]For more information from NJDEP about climate change in New Jersey, visit the links below:

 

New Jersey temperature and other climate data are available from the New Jersey State Climatologist. See http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/. In addition, the New Jersey Climate Change Resource Center has compiled a variety of reports, data-visualizations, and mapping tools specific to the State of New Jersey. Visit NJ ADAPT for more information.[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1731606736158{border-bottom-width: 4px !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-color: #5b9bd5 !important;}”]

Suggested Citation

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=””]NJDEP. “Climate Change in New Jersey: Temperature, Precipitation, Extreme Events and Sea Level” Environmental Trends Report, NJDEP, Division of Science and Research. Last modified January 2026. Accessed [month day, year]. https://deptest.nj.gov/dsr/environmental-trends/climate-change/.[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1731606802996{border-bottom-width: 4px !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-color: #5b9bd5 !important;}”]

Download the Data

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The data used in Figures 1-8 are available to download here.

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References

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1768510368371{border-bottom-width: 4px !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-color: #5b9bd5 !important;}”]1National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (n.d.). What’s the Difference Between Weather and Climate? https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/weather-vs-climate. Accessed on 1/7/2026.

2Grade, A.M., A.R. Crimmins, S. Basile, M.R. Essig, L. Goldsmith, T.K. Maycock, A. McCarrick, A. Lustig, and A. Scheetz, 2023: Appendix 5. Glossary. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.A5

3Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2023. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 1-34, doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001

4Climate Action Tracker. (2024). The CAT Thermometer. https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/

5Marvel, K., W. Su, R. Delgado, S. Aarons, A. Chatterjee, M.E. Garcia, Z. Hausfather, K. Hayhoe, D.A. Hence, E.B. Jewett, A. Robel, D. Singh, A. Tripati, and R.S. Vose, 2023: Ch. 2. Climate trends. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA.

6Haskett, Jonathan D., 2023. Is That Climate Change? the Science of Extreme Event Attribution. Congressional Research Service.

7Carbon Brief, (n.d.). Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world. January 15, 2024. https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/. Accessed 1/7/2026.

8World Weather Attribution, (n.d.). https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/. Accessed 1/7/2026.

9Climate Central, (n.d.). https://www.climatecentral.org/resources?tab=content. Accessed 1/7/2026.

10Mauritsen, Thorsten, and Robert Pincus. “Committed warming inferred from observations.” Nature Climate Change 7.9 (2017): 652-655.

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