{"id":4658,"date":"2021-11-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-18T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/newsrel\/21_0038\/"},"modified":"2024-03-19T08:19:38","modified_gmt":"2024-03-19T12:19:38","slug":"21_0038","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/newsrel\/21_0038\/","title":{"rendered":"New Jersey-Specific Studies Confirm Rainfall Is Intensifying Because of Climate Change (21\/P038)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class='col-sm-6'>\n<p><strong>FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE<\/strong><br \/>          November 18, 2021<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class='col-sm-6 text-right rightColumn'>\n<p><strong>Contact: <\/strong>  \t\t\t   Lawrence Hajna      (609) 984-1795<br \/> \t   Caryn Shinske    (609) 292-2994<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<h3 align='center'><strong>NEW JERSEY-SPECIFIC STUDIES CONFIRM RAINFALL IS INTENSIFYING BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE <\/strong><\/h3>\n<div class='col-sm-12 newsmain'>\n<section>\n<p><strong>(21\/P038)  TRENTON<\/strong> &ndash; The New Jersey Department of  Environmental Protection has released two studies by the Northeast Regional  Climate Center, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)  partner, confirming increases in precipitation across New Jersey over the last  20 years, and projecting further increases in precipitation intensity through  the end of this century due to climate change, Environmental Protection  Commissioner Shawn M. LaTourette announced today.<\/p>\n<p><img width='391' height='261' src='\/newsrel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/32\/2021\/21_0038_clip_image002.gif' align='left' hspace='12' alt='Rahway River area flooding from Tropical Storm Ida'>The studies  by Dr. Arthur DeGaetano, director of the Northeast Regional Climate Center and  professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University, and  peer-reviewed by DEP&rsquo;s Science Advisory Board, provide a range of rainfall  projections dependent on warming scenario. These reports, which fill in&nbsp;  20 years of climate data gaps, will aid governments, communities and businesses  in their work to build greater climate resilience.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;While New Jersey is ground  zero for some of the worst impacts of climate change, this science provides us  another opportunity to ensure that our communities become more resilient,&rdquo; said  Commissioner LaTourette.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;As we saw late this summer with  the remnants of Tropical Storms Henri and Ida, more frequent and intense storms  are our reality today, and we can expect these extreme precipitation events to  continue, even worsen, in the years ahead,&rdquo; Commissioner LaTourette continued.  &ldquo;By building upon our scientific understanding, we can take the wise steps that  the science demands: from planning more resilient development, to enhancing our  stormwater and flood control infrastructure and beyond. We all have the power  to ensure that what we build today will stand the test of time and a changing  climate.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>The studies show:<\/p>\n<ul type='disc'>\n<li><strong>Precipitation is already 2.5% to 10% higher. <\/strong>The       precipitation expectations that presently guide state policy, planning and       development criteria, and which rely upon data obtained through 1999, do       not accurately reflect current precipitation intensity conditions. Extreme       precipitation amounts are 2.5% higher now than the 1999 data suggests, and       some parts of the state have seen a 10% increase above the outdated       data.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Precipitation is likely to increase by more than 20%       from the 1999 baseline by 2100, <\/strong>and projected changes will be       greater in the northern part of the state than in the southern and coastal       areas, with projections for some northwestern counties seeing the greatest       increase, some by as much as 50%.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&ldquo;As we move into a warmer and wetter world, it is crucial that the most  recent rainfall observations and state-of-the-art climate model simulations of  future rainfall be incorporated into decisions regarding flood potential, infrastructure  design and resiliency planning,&rdquo; Dr. DeGaetano said.<\/p>\n<p>These two reports went through a peer review by  the DEP Science Advisory Board&rsquo;s standing committee for Climate and Atmospheric  Sciences, led by Dr. Anthony Broccoli, Co-Director of the Rutgers Climate  Institute and faculty member in the Department of Environmental Sciences.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;One of the consequences of climate change is that  we can no longer assume that what has happened in the past is a guide to the  future,&rdquo; Dr. Broccoli said. &ldquo;These studies will provide better guidance for  estimating and managing future risks to human life, property, and  infrastructure.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Notably, the studies will  provide&nbsp; the scientific basis for the ongoing development and modification  of rules to be introduced under the state&rsquo;s <a href='https:\/\/www.nj.gov\/dep\/njpact\/'>NJPACT<\/a> (Protecting Against Climate Threats) and <a href='https:\/\/www.nj.gov\/dep\/njpact\/real.html'>NJREAL<\/a> (Resilient Environments and Landscapes) initiatives  as directed by Governor Murphy&rsquo;s <a href='https:\/\/nj.gov\/infobank\/eo\/056murphy\/pdf\/EO-100.pdf'>Executive Order 100<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>The studies build from data  currently published in the NOAA Atlas 14, a federal resource of precipitation  totals used to aid in engineering and design planning and the standard resource  for rain depth associated with precipitation events. NOAA Atlas 14 is an  ongoing study used to analyze historical rainfall data to update statistical  rainfall events. <\/p>\n<p>In New Jersey, Atlas 14 is  often used to analyze flood potential in waterways and in the design of  stormwater infrastructure. The current Atlas 14 volume available for New Jersey  was last updated in 2006 and includes data only through 1999. This new data  fills a data gap of some two decades allowing the state to plan and design  projects based on current data.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;The recent excessive  rainfall totals and accompanying tragic flash flooding associated with Henri  and Ida suggest that an update of the Atlas 14 report was prudent,&rdquo; said State  Climatologist Dr. David A. Robinson. &ldquo;New Jersey must be better prepared to  deal more frequently with such events now and in upcoming years.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Among other storm types  studied, what is often referred to as the 100-year, 24-hour storm is included.  A 100-year storm is one that has a 1 percent chance of occurring based on past  historical records and represents the total amount of rainfall likely to fall  within a 24-hour period. <\/p>\n<p>It is important to note that  despite the name, it is a mistake to assume such a rainfall occurs once every  100 years. Rather, it means that there is a 1 percent chance in any given year  that this type of storm will hit any given area. In fact, the remnants of  Tropical Storms Henri and Ida, though considered 100-year-storms, hit the same  areas less than two week apart this past summer. <\/p>\n<p><img src='\/newsrel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/32\/2021\/21_0038_clip_image004.jpg' alt='image' width='418' height='542' align='right' hspace='12'>The long-term projections were developed from a  combination of 47 climate models under moderate and high future emissions  scenarios. The modeled storms included those with a 50% chance of occurring  each year (also known as a 2-year storm), a 20% chance of occurring each year  (5-year storm), a 10% chance of occurring each year (10-year storm), a 4%  chance of occurring each year (25-year storm), a 2% chance of occurring each  year (50-year storm), and a 1% chance of occurring each year (100-year storm).<\/p>\n<p>The accompanying map shows,  by county, the upper range of how much additional rainfall may occur during a  24-hour period of a 100-year storm under a moderate warming scenario.<\/p>\n<p>The first study, <em>Changes  in Hourly and Daily Extreme Rainfall Amounts in NJ since the Publication of  NOAA Atlas 14 Volume,<\/em> closes climate data gaps and addresses how measures  of storm intensity change by incorporating the past two decades of data into  the current analyses.<\/p>\n<p>The data show that the  current version of NOAA Atlas 14, published in 2006 with data through 1999,  does not accurately reflect current precipitation intensity conditions  particularly for 24-hour and 48-hour storm event. The study found that at more  than half of the stations reviewed, extreme precipitation amounts are 2.5%  higher now than those published in 2000. In some places, the additional 20  years of data reflects a more than 10% increase above the outdated data.<\/p>\n<p>The second report, <em>Projected  Changes in Extreme Rainfall in New Jersey based on an Ensemble of Downscaled  Climate Model Projections,<\/em> addresses changes to precipitation intensity  that can be expected by the middle and latter part of the century. <\/p>\n<p>The data from this study  clearly indicate that there is a high likelihood that precipitation intensity  will increase throughout the century in all parts of the state, but the  projected changes will be greater in the northern part of the state than in the  southern and coastal areas. The report provides mid and late-century  projections for each county. Key findings:<\/p>\n<ul type='disc'>\n<li>Under a scenario of moderate increases in atmospheric       warming of about 3.2\u02daF (1.8\u02daC), projections suggest that the amount of       precipitation associated with the 100-year, 24-hour storm will increase by       20% to 25% in northern counties, on average. <\/li>\n<li>For the 100-year, 24-hour storm, the models suggest       that there is a 17% chance that precipitation associated with this this       type of storm will increase by as much as 45% to 50% in some counties.<\/li>\n<li>More frequent storms, such as the 2-year and 10-year,       24-hour storms are expected to see increases in precipitation intensity of       5% to 15% on average across the state by the end of the century.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These studies further New  Jersey&rsquo;s commitment to providing the best available science as a basis for  decision-making as evidenced by the Scientific Report on Climate Change (<a href='https:\/\/www.nj.gov\/dep\/climatechange\/data.html'>https:\/\/www.nj.gov\/dep\/climatechange\/data.html<\/a>) and consistent with the Statewide Climate Change  Resilience Strategy (<a href='https:\/\/www.nj.gov\/dep\/climatechange\/resilience-strategy.html'>https:\/\/www.nj.gov\/dep\/climatechange\/resilience-strategy.html<\/a>). <\/p>\n<p>The studies and a research  summary are available at <a href='https:\/\/nj.gov\/dep\/dsr\/'>https:\/\/nj.gov\/dep\/dsr\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Science Advisory and  Board review and responses are available at <a href='https:\/\/www.nj.gov\/dep\/sab\/'>https:\/\/www.nj.gov\/dep\/sab\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>DEP  PHOTO\/Rahway River area flooding from Tropical Storm Ida<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 18, 2021 Contact: Lawrence Hajna (609) 984-1795 Caryn Shinske (609) 292-2994 NEW JERSEY-SPECIFIC STUDIES CONFIRM RAINFALL IS INTENSIFYING BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE (21\/P038) TRENTON &ndash; The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection has released two studies by the Northeast Regional Climate Center, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) partner, confirming [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"dep-single.php","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-5"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/newsrel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4658","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/newsrel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/newsrel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/newsrel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/112"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/newsrel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4658"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/newsrel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4658\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/newsrel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/newsrel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/newsrel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}