{"id":187,"date":"2022-06-08T11:49:12","date_gmt":"2022-06-08T15:49:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/floodemergencyrule\/?page_id=187"},"modified":"2023-08-18T07:59:17","modified_gmt":"2023-08-18T11:59:17","slug":"underlying-science","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/inland-flood-protection-rule\/underlying-science\/","title":{"rendered":"Underlying Science"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row full_width=&#8221;stretch_row_content_no_spaces&#8221;][vc_column][vc_column_text]<img decoding=\"async\" class=\"w-100\" src=\"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/inland-flood-protection-rule\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/180\/flood-science-banner.jpg\" alt=\"photo of flooding\" \/>[\/vc_column_text][vc_raw_html]JTNDZGl2JTIwY2xhc3MlM0QlMjJjYXJvdXNlbC1jYXB0aW9uJTIwZC1tZC1ibG9jayUyMGQtc20tYmxvY2slMjIlM0UlMEElM0NoMSUzRVVuZGVybHlpbmclMjBTY2llbmNlJTNDJTJGaDElM0UlMEElM0MlMkZkaXYlM0U=[\/vc_raw_html][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][breadcrumb-shortcode][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Intensifying Rainfall and Flooding in New Jersey<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Higher temperatures\u00a0increase the energy in storms and allow the atmosphere to hold more water, which increases the potential for more intense precipitation and flooding\n<ul>\n<li>By the end of the 21st century, heavy storm events are projected to occur\u00a0200\u00a0to\u00a0500% more often and with more intensity than\u00a0in the\u00a020th century<\/li>\n<li>Major flood events hit New Jersey in 2000, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, and\u00a02021<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>NJDEP and the Northeast Regional Climate Center, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) partner, released <a href=\"https:\/\/hdl.handle.net\/10929\/97941\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">two New Jersey-specific studies<\/a> in November 2021:\n<ul>\n<li>Confirming increases in precipitation across New Jersey over the last 20 years<\/li>\n<li>Projecting further increases in precipitation intensity over the coming decades<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>The data presently used to analyze flood potential in waterways and in the design of stormwater infrastructure is outdated\u2014it includes data only through 1999\n<ul>\n<li>The precipitation expectations that presently guide state policy, planning and development criteria, and which rely upon data obtained through 1999, do not accurately reflect current precipitation intensity conditions<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<strong>Resources<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/dsr\/#1686317267370-a135dcc1-784b\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Projected Changes in Extreme Rainfall in New Jersey<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/dspace.njstatelib.org\/handle\/10929\/97364\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Changes in Hourly and Daily Extremer Rainfall Amounts in NJ<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/inland-flood-protection-rule\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/180\/nfip_fact_sheets_combined-2016.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FEMA National Flood Insurance Program Fact Sheet<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/2&#8243;][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Highest Observed and Projected Precipitation Change<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"pb-0 mb-0 \" style=\"color: #0189b2;\"><i class=\"fas fa-square-full\"><\/i> Observed Precipitation Change Since 1999<\/h4>\n<h4 class=\"\" style=\"color: #69ab43;\"><i class=\"fas fa-square-full\"><\/i> Projected Precipitation Change Under a Moderate Emissions Scenario for 2050-2099<\/h4>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][rrj_bar_chart3 labels=&#8221;2-year storm;10-year storm; 100-year storm&#8221; datasets=&#8221;%5B%7B%22title%22%3A%22Highest%20observed%20change%20value%20%22%2C%22values%22%3A%224%25%3B6%25%3B15%25%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22%230189b2%22%2C%22border%22%3A%22yes%22%2C%22tooltips%22%3A%22%7Bd%7D%20%7Bx%7D%3A%20%7By%7D%25%22%2C%22bar_bg%22%3A%22plain%22%7D%2C%7B%22title%22%3A%22Highest%20value%20of%20the%20likely%20projected%20change%E2%80%AF%22%2C%22values%22%3A%2224%3B27%3B50%22%2C%22color%22%3A%22%2369ab43%22%2C%22border%22%3A%22yes%22%2C%22tooltips%22%3A%22%7Bd%7D%20%7Bx%7D%3A%20%7By%7D%25%22%2C%22bar_bg%22%3A%22plain%22%7D%5D&#8221; legends=&#8221;&#8221; legend_position=&#8221;top&#8221; chart_id=&#8221;future-precipitation&#8221; axis_suffix=&#8221;%&#8221;][vc_raw_html]JTNDZGl2JTIwY2xhc3MlM0QlMjJncmFwaC1jYXB0aW9uJTIwZC1tZC1ibG9jayUyMGQtc20tYmxvY2slMjIlM0UlMEElM0NoMyUzRUhpZ2hlc3QlMjAlMjUlMjBDaGFuZ2UlM0MlMkZoMyUzRSUwQSUzQyUyRmRpdiUzRQ==[\/vc_raw_html][vc_column_text]<strong>Highest observed and projected extreme precipitation percent changes in New Jersey<\/strong>. For a 24-hour storm, the highest\u202fpercent change of the analyzed NJ stations from 1950-1999 to 1950-2019\u202fis displayed in blue bars for\u202frecurrence intervals (2-year, 10-year, 100-year). The green bars display the highest NJ county projected percent change at the\u202fupper likelihood\u202ffor each recurrence interval\u202funder a moderate emissions scenario from 1950-1999 to 2050-2099.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/2&#8243; el_class=&#8221;px-lg-5 mt-5 pt-3&#8243;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1655142233755{border-top-width: 10px !important;border-right-width: 10px !important;border-bottom-width: 10px !important;border-left-width: 10px !important;padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #0189b2 !important;background-position: 0 0 !important;background-repeat: no-repeat !important;border-left-color: #ffffff !important;border-left-style: solid !important;border-right-color: #ffffff !important;border-right-style: solid !important;border-top-color: #ffffff !important;border-top-style: solid !important;border-bottom-color: #ffffff !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-radius: 20px !important;}&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"text-center text-white\"><strong>More Intense Rain = <\/strong><br \/>\nMore Stormwater Runoff<\/h4>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_raw_html]JTNDZGl2JTIwY2xhc3MlM0QlMjJ0ZXh0LWNlbnRlciUyMiUzRSUzQ2klMjBjbGFzcyUzRCUyMmZhcyUyMGZhLWFycm93LWRvd24lMjBmYS01eCUyMiUzRSUzQyUyRmklM0UlM0MlMkZkaXYlM0U=[\/vc_raw_html][vc_column_text css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1654872363783{border-top-width: 10px !important;border-right-width: 10px !important;border-bottom-width: 10px !important;border-left-width: 10px !important;padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #21c445 !important;background-position: 0 0 !important;background-repeat: no-repeat !important;border-left-color: #ffffff !important;border-left-style: solid !important;border-right-color: #ffffff !important;border-right-style: solid !important;border-top-color: #ffffff !important;border-top-style: solid !important;border-bottom-color: #ffffff !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-radius: 20px !important;}&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"text-center text-white\"><strong>More Runoff =<\/strong><br \/>\nIncreased Riverine Flow<\/h4>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_raw_html]JTNDZGl2JTIwY2xhc3MlM0QlMjJ0ZXh0LWNlbnRlciUyMiUzRSUzQ2klMjBjbGFzcyUzRCUyMmZhcyUyMGZhLWFycm93LWRvd24lMjBmYS01eCUyMiUzRSUzQyUyRmklM0UlM0MlMkZkaXYlM0U=[\/vc_raw_html][vc_column_text css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1654872606558{border-top-width: 10px !important;border-right-width: 10px !important;border-bottom-width: 10px !important;border-left-width: 10px !important;padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #b2d034 !important;background-position: 0 0 !important;background-repeat: no-repeat !important;border-left-color: #ffffff !important;border-left-style: solid !important;border-right-color: #ffffff !important;border-right-style: solid !important;border-top-color: #ffffff !important;border-top-style: solid !important;border-bottom-color: #ffffff !important;border-bottom-style: solid !important;border-radius: 20px !important;}&#8221;]<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"text-center text-white\"><strong>More Flow =<\/strong><br \/>\nHigher Flood Elevations<\/h4>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_empty_space][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row full_width=&#8221;stretch_row_content_no_spaces&#8221;][vc_column][vc_column_text][\/vc_column_text][vc_raw_html]JTNDZGl2JTIwY2xhc3MlM0QlMjJjYXJvdXNlbC1jYXB0aW9uJTIwZC1tZC1ibG9jayUyMGQtc20tYmxvY2slMjIlM0UlMEElM0NoMSUzRVVuZGVybHlpbmclMjBTY2llbmNlJTNDJTJGaDElM0UlMEElM0MlMkZkaXYlM0U=[\/vc_raw_html][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][breadcrumb-shortcode][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] Intensifying Rainfall and Flooding in New Jersey Higher temperatures\u00a0increase the energy in storms and allow the atmosphere to hold more water, which increases the potential for more intense precipitation and flooding By the end of the 21st century, heavy storm events are projected to occur\u00a0200\u00a0to\u00a0500% more often and with more intensity than\u00a0in the\u00a020th [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":113,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"fullwidth.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-187","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/inland-flood-protection-rule\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/187","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/inland-flood-protection-rule\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/inland-flood-protection-rule\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/inland-flood-protection-rule\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/113"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/inland-flood-protection-rule\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=187"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/inland-flood-protection-rule\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/187\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/deptest.nj.gov\/inland-flood-protection-rule\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}